Quantcast

Know Better

Ldn FX: Euro Under Fresh Pressure As Banks Sell Ruble Basket

LONDON, Feb. 18 (MNI) - The euro came under further pressure in early European trade, as commercial banks sold the Russia's ruble basket.

Euro-dollar stretched its corrective pullback, from Wednesday's highs of $1.3789, to $1.3539 before meeting support, with traders noting reports of Russian central bank intervention as rate recovered, though it remained below $1.3600.

EURO SUMMARY: Opened in early Europe around $1.3575

around $1.3600 following Wednesday's sharp reversal that had seen it fall back to $1.3585 from earlier highs of $1.3789. Rate marked highs at $1.3613 before turning lower again as market reacted to reports of IMF gold sales. The Fund reported that they had sold 212 tonnes off market to central banks and would be conducting a 'phased over time' sale of a further 191.3 tonnes on market. Gold dropped $10 to $1005 and provided the impetus to take rate through the NY low, triggering stops through $1.3580-60 before marking lows at $1.3557. Recovery extended into early Europe to $1.3596 before turning lower again, with pressure on the ruble band adding weight. Rate broke under NY lows, extending base to $1.3539 before meeting demand interest (traders noting Russian cenbank intervention in the ruble). Rate recovered to $1.3590 before settling around $1.3570 ahead of New York. Bids $1.3540/30 ahead of $1.3500 barriers. Offers $1.3590/00.

US: Press pick-ups in the US Thursday, * US PRESS: The Obama administration is facing increasing pressure from lawmakers and housing advocates to retool its troubled mortgage relief program a year after its debut as the housing crisis continues to deepen and spreads to more creditworthy borrowers, the Washington Post reports. The $75 billion program pays lenders to modify the mortgages of troubled borrowers, typically lowering their payments by about $500 a month, the paper says. * US PRESS: Manufacturers are seeing more signs that the U.S. economic recovery is on a solid footing, opening the way for new hiring as well as call-backs for factory workers laid off during the depths of the recession, the WSJ reports.

EUROZONE: Reported comments from eurozone officials Thursday, * FRANCE FINMIN: See uneven growth ahead; must not brake upturn * MALTA CBANK: Inflation seen moderate up to 2011 - Growing signs that economic contraction ending - Recovery to be uneven, uncertain and gradual - Recovery to be supported by exports, domestic demand

EUROZONE: Press pick-ups concerning the eurozone Thursday, * GREECE: The FT says expectations are rising in the markets that Greece will attempt to issue new bonds next week. One syndicate banker in London told the paper: "There are conversations going on between bankers and investors over pricing for a potential deal. The markets have stabilised - so it could be a good time for the Greeks to issue even a small amount." In Athens, there was also speculation that Greece would return to the market to raise at least E3bn-E5bn ($4bn-$6.8bn) through another syndicated loan. A finance ministry official said no decision had been taken. * ITALY: Derivative contracts taken out by Italian municipalities could jeopardize local public finances for decades, even though the global financial crisis has softened the blow in the short term, Italy's Audit Court said Wednesday, the WSJ reports. * GREECE: A controversial currency swap undertaken by the Greek government in 2001 had no bearing on the country's eligibility for entry into Europe's single currency because Greece was already a member at the time, Greek officials say, the WSJ reports.

EUROZONE: Releases in the eurozone Thursday, * BUNDESBANK: Monetary data indicate no clear EMU price threat next 3 yrs - Despite drop, euro 'clearly over its long-term average' - Uncertainty surrounding EMU price stability outlook still high - Mid- to long-term EMU inflation expectations still well anchored - Lower stimulus impact suggests sluggish EMU recovery in 1Q - 'Still no improvement in sight' on Eurozone's labor market - Global economy seems to have stayed on growth path 1Q 2010 - U.S. economic outlook better than it's been in a long time - Monetary/fiscal policy support private consumption in U.S. for now - German economic recovery basically remains intact - Rising german manufacturing cap. utilization sign of turnaround - Germany growth still lacking strength, breadth - Export-based german recovery needs stronger trade with EMU - Slow loan growth not sign of credit crunch in Germany - More job cuts in german manufacturing near term but no sharp rise

YEN SUMMARY: Opened in early Europe around Y90.98 and Y123.65 - Dollar-yen had tested higher overnight and spent the majority of the morning session retracing this move. The cross-yen market was sold off as traders were caught long ahead of Toshin demand next week, notably sterling-yen after weak UK data. Sterling fell to Y141.44, after opening the session at Y142.55. Dollar-yen extended its losses to Y90.73 as traders reported good size sales going through but went on to say that there was very little impact and that the supply was being soaked up easily. The market still appears to have its eyes on the topside with talk of some good size stop loss orders to be executed on the break of Y91.50. Traders say the top of the daily Ichimoku cloud is located at Y91.41 just beyond the overnight high of Y91.39

JAPAN: Releases in Japan Thursday, * BOJ: Votes unanimously to keep rate at 0.1% - Keeps Japan core economic assessment unchanged - Repeats Japan economy picking up - Must watch global markets move impact - Downside risk to Japan econ still persists - Japan financial conditions continue improving - Repeats momentum for self-sustainable recovery weak

JAPAN: Reported comments from Japanese officials Thursday, * BOJ SHIRAKAWA: Wider rate cut margin would not help - Financial markets not working as well as before - but making efforts to keep market functions - Can't judge demand fund demand on low bank lend - Can't judge fund demand on low bank lending - US, Europe worst than post-bubble Japan - Too much focus on short term prices - Rigid inflation target application wont work - BOJ inflation guide best among cenbanks - Must boost productivity to beat deflation - Toyota recalls not having major impact now

JAPAN: Data released in Japan Thursday, * Department store sales fell 5.5% from a year earlier in January to Y570.0 billion, with the rate of year-on-year decline slower at around 5% for the second straight month as fears of a recession have eased, the Japan Department Stores Association said on Thursday. Department store sales posted the 23rd straight year-on-year drop in January following -5.0% in December, but the industry group noted that the three-month moving average for sales is on a recovering trend.

- John Webb London bureau (44 207) 634 1628 jwebb@marketnews.com

Rates in London Trading TIME EURO-USD USD-YEN CABLE EURO-YEN EURO-STG 0600 GMT 1.3575 90.92 1.5657 123.42 0.8670 0700 GMT 1.3593 90.97 1.5670 123.65 0.8675 0800 GMT 1.3543 91.00 1.5622 123.24 0.8669 0900 GMT 1.3558 90.92 1.5615 123.26 0.8682 1000 GMT 1.3572 90.80 1.5577 123.23 0.8712 1100 GMT 1.3584 90.85 1.5607 123.41 0.8703