By Emma Charlton

BRUSSELS (MNI) - An imminent decision by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso on how to distribute 27 European Commissioner posts to be filled in January will likely have direct consequences for the top two positions at the European Central Bank, which become vacant next year and in 2011.

The two ECB positions, Vice-President and President, are due for renewal in mid-2010 and in November 2011, respectively. Observers say the decisions currently being made at the EU's executive arm here should provide clues as to who will ultimately be selected to fill the top slots at the central bank.

Last week, Belgium and the UK secured the newly created roles of European Council President and High Representative, the equivalent of EU foreign minister.

"Given that Germany failed to put forward any national candidates for either of the EU roles, we think that they would like Bundesbank President Weber to take the hot seat at the ECB," said Colin Ellis, an economist at Daiwa Securities.

Weber's toughest challenger is likely to be Bank of Italy Governor Mario Draghi, an experienced central banker, investment banker and chairman of the international Financial Stability Board, Ellis said.

"For now, at least, Weber looks to be in pole position. But both are excellent candidates and neither would fundamentally change the character of the ECB," he said.

If Weber were to take over from current President Jean-Claude Trichet, it could potentially cause problems for Juergen Stark, a member of the ECB's Executive Board and the central bank's chief economist. That's because Germany would then have two members on the Executive Board, which could raise some eyebrows among the political leaders of member states, who make the ECB executive board appointments.

France might take a particularly dour view of two Germans on the Executive Board. That's because it might conceivably want a board slot for itself since it wouldn't have one after Trichet, a Frenchman, stepped down.

Because Stark's appointment to the ECB board doesn't expire until 2014, he would overlap by three years with a potential Weber ECB presidency. That prospect could potentially throw the advantage to Draghi or another contender in the ECB presidential sweepstakes.

On the other hand, if Stark could be convinced to stand down, that would be a different matter altogether. And the idea is hardly far fetched, with Stark perhaps tempted by another high profile job, such as the presidency of the Bundesbank, which would be open if Weber moved to the ECB.

It's even possible, though purely speculative at this juncture, to imagine France backing a Weber presidential bid that was accompanied by Stark's return to the Bundesbank and a new French appointment to the ECB Executive Board.

In the ECB vice presidential contest, which is of nearer-term concern, Portugal is pushing hard for its central bank governor, Vitor Constancio. Its desire to see Constancio elevated to the vice presidency seems to have been accompanied by a suitably low-key Portuguese approach in all the current jockeying over EU Commission posts.

Also believed to be interested in replacing current ECB Vice President Lucas Papademos is Yves Mersch, the governor of the Luxembourg Central Bank. Peter Praet, Executive Director of the Belgian National Bank, has also been mentioned as a possible candidate. But with the appointment of Belgium's Prime Minister Herman van Rompuy as the EU's new president, Praet's chances appear to have dimmed.

Meanwhile, the maneuvering in Brussels continues apace. Germany is posting Guenther Oettinger, currently head of the German state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, to Brussels and is said to want either the position of industry or trade commissioner for him.

Though these are important jobs, Germany does not appear to be bidding for either of the two top economic portfolios, Competition and Economic and Monetary Affairs. Such relatively modest ambition - relative to Germany's size and weight, that is - could be a sign that the Germans are keeping their powder dry for a Weber ECB campaign.

The list of European Commissioners-designate is dominated by centre-right politicians. Each of the 27 EU members nominates one politician to represent it at the Commission. President Jose Manuel Barroso then appoints each of those nominees to one of the commissioner jobs.

Once they've been selected by Barroso, the new Commissioners have to be approved by the members of European Parliament during hearings in January. The new EU Commission is expected to take office in late January.

Tough bargaining and horse trading is expected over the high-profile economic portfolios, including competition, trade, monetary affairs and internal markets.

Already, deals are said to have been brokered, with France lobbying hard for its candidate, Michel Barnier, to take on the internal market job, currently held by Ireland's Charlie McCreevy.

Barnier - a former agriculture minister - served as European Commissioner for Regional Policy in the Romano Prodi Commission from 1999 until March 2004.

Joaquin Almunia has been nominated to serve a second five-year term as Spain's commissioner, but he is unlikely to stay as Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs because Barroso is believed to want to refresh each portfolio.

Dutch finance minister Wouter Bos told Dutch television this week that he understood Barroso didn't want any commissioner to retain the same beat.

But Almunia is well respected and he is likely to walk away with one of the other top jobs. He's been tipped to take over Competition - seen by many as the commission's top post, currently held by the Netherland's Neelie Kroes.

Kroes is also staying on, and she has said she wants one of the top economic jobs, but she is tipped for the digital economy portfolio, covering telecommunications, information technology and some areas of copyright regulation.

Other commissioners nominated to serve a second term include Finland's Olli Rehn and Luxembourg's Viviane Reding.

There's still room for a few surprises, observers said, noting that in the last Barroso commission several small countries picked up big portfolios, including Ireland, which landed the Internal Markets portfolio.

Barroso this week denied his decisions were a result of political horse trading. His spokesperson told reporters that while there had been "lots of informal decisions," the portfolios would be "allocated according to the skills and competencies of every single candidate."

"All of us are subject to pressure and requests," Barroso said. "But at the end of the day, I have the final decision on what the next Commission will be."