By Charles Newbery

BUENOS AIRES (MNI) - "ShowMatch," a long-running variety program on Argentine television, saw ratings rise this week with a political parody highlighting rising unemployment and discontent.

Marcelo Tinelli, the host, performed a series of sketches starring a look-alike of Luis d'Elia, a powerful leader in the jobless workers movement who has close connections to President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner.

D'Elia last week lashed out at Tinelli and other TV celebrities who have been calling on the government to quell swelling crime and social tension, including scores of marches and roadblocks waged by the likes of d'Elia to press for more social welfare for the unemployed.

While "ShowMatch" is entertainment, the episode was a response to mounting social discontent in Argentina that in recent days has shut down subways and main avenues in Buenos Aires. The jobless want more aid, the middle class wants a clampdown on crime and executives want a stable economy.

The president? She and Nestor Kirchner, her husband and predecessor, want to sustain enough power to hold onto the presidency in the 2011 election. Maintaining the peace and settling the country's $30 billion in foreign debts will be key, political analysts say.

Federico MacDougall, an economic and political analyst at the University of Belgrano in Buenos Aires, said he expects a rise in labor and social tension in 2010 as companies try to rebuild profit margins after a recession this year, and workers and the unemployed press for higher wages and welfare as rising inflation eats away at their savings and spending power.

Inflation is expected to rise to an annual 15-20% in 2010 from 12-14% this year, increasing wage and welfare demands, something the government is finding hard to meet because there is simply less money.

Between 2003 and 2008, the government could satisfy the demands of both business and labor unions because annual growth of 6-9% fueled by strong exports helped boost tax collections to keep the federal budget in surplus.

This year, however, the economy is on track to shrink by 3% and next year will only grow by 2-4%.

The first couple can choose to help one side or the other, and it is siding with labor, MacDougall said.

He said by going to bat for workers, the government can temper the wage demands of allied labor bosses, minimizing the impact on corporate earnings and investment. The risk is that unaligned unions will take their demands for higher increases to the streets, he said.

In addition, building support for the 2011 presidential election also involves building connections with mayors of the 24 districts of the Conurbano, the heavily populated region surrounding Buenos Aires that is a key voting district.

The first couple already has the support of Hugo Moyano, a powerful labor leader whose son runs the influential Truckers Union.

Carlos Germano, a political analyst in Buenos Aires, explained that the mayors and truckers bring "a large number of votes and logistics" for the 2011 election.

The alliances also aim to ensure governability for CFK in the last two years of her term, when she will no longer have control of both houses of parliament.

"The party is over," Roberto Starke, a political analyst at Infomedia Consulting in Buenos Aires, said in reference to Dec. 10, when new members of both houses will take seats.

"The Kirchners will have a lot less power next year," he said, adding that the decline in state finances "will make it harder for the Kirchners to keep order."

The weakened political position makes it key to regain access to international credit markets, which Argentina was cut off from after defaulting on $95 billion in bonds in 2001.

The government is negotiating a deal for paying off about $20 billion to holders of defaulted bonds and $6.5 billion to the Paris Club of creditor nations. This would give the country access to more credit at lower rates, after relying on tax revenue and high-interest borrowing since 2001.

"The government will be able to go into debt (on foreign markets) so it can have a financial cushion" to contend with any rise in tension with the unions and social groups, Starke said. "The Kirchners want to ride through the next two years as comfortably as possible."

The first couple has little to lose, given that their approval ratings are at the lowest in their careers.

MacDougall said, "They have already sunk and so going down another 100 meters doesn't really matter."

The tough times for the first couple should be a choice opportunity for the opposition to gain votes.

The problem is that the opposition "is very fragmented," Starke said.

Ironically, the only apparent opponent is Vice President Julio Cobos, and he has yet to build a team.

Another possible gainer is Elisa Carrio, who came second after CFK in the 2007 presidential election. But her constant stream of complaints is not winning over voters looking for long-term plans for the country, Starke said.

Carlos Reutemann, who has long been considered presidential material, appears to have become a recluse, and Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Marci, another rising political figure, is struggling with criticism for failing to crack down on crime.

Eduardo Duhalde, who was president in 2002-03, so far lacks support outside of Buenos Aires province to get back into office.

"The only one in the field is Nestor Kirchner," Starke said. "He knows that if the opposition doesn't do anything then he can win.:

** Market News International **