
ASIA FX: Market Quiet On Holidays and Pre-FOMC, G20
SINGAPORE (MNI) Sept 21 - Asian currency markets were quiet in mmorning trade with many closed for holidays and in advance of potentially market sensitive meetings later in the week.
The pound saw the only real action in the morning, weakening slightly against the dollar after a Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin warned that the currency's sharp depreciation at the end of 2008 was likely attributed to the UK's relative performance -- including a comparison of household debt levels versus its peers -- as well as factors including increased risk premia on UK assets and the imbalanced nature of the country's external balance sheet.
Cable started the session trading around $1.6257 versus $1.6261 in New York on Friday and ended the morning around $1.6230.
Holidays in Japan and Singapore, as well as many other Asian countries, kept trading light although traders said there was also some reluctance to carry on with the weak dollar trend given the FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday.
The euro was trading around $1.4690 by noon, from $1.4700 at the close Friday, which was down from its new 2009 high of $1.4766 hit earlier in the New York day.
Dollar-yen was at Y91.47 from Y91.37 in New York. It started the Asian session around Y91.50.
In the euro, the market was targeting a retest of the September 2008 peak at $1.4865 and then psychological resistance at $1.5000 in coming session.
Some weak euro stops are said to be placed near $1.4650/60 from short-term prop accounts, while bids are placed near $1.4600. Stops are also tipped in euro-yen from Y135.10.
There was scant sign of profit-taking, which seemed to suggest that the market saw little event risk from the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting (September 22-23) or the G-20 meeting taking place in Pittsburgh September 24-25.
Still, some traders suggested the market may be slightly wary about the euro, with CFTC data showing speculative accounts increased their net euro long positions as per September 15.
The net position in non-commercial futures (ex-options) showed that speculators increased their net euro long to +37,772 contracts from last week's net long of +18,033 contracts, the CFTC said in its Committment of Traders report.
Tuesday's net euro position compares to the record net euro long position of +119,538 contracts seen May 15, 2007, and the record net euro short position of -40,654 contracts, seen September 16, 2008.
However, any market-moving news may be unlikely at the FOMC. Market News International's Fed correspondent Steve Beckner maintained that the Fed is unlikely to alter its message in any meaningful way, despite comments from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke earlier in the week that "the recession is very likely over at this point."
Bernanke's other points, made that day, taken together with what other Fed officials have said recently, "imply no termination of the 'extended period' of 'exceptionally low' interest rates anytime soon or even any feint in that direction," Beckner said.
As for G-20, the Wall Street Journal is carrying a report saying a plan is being finalized to commit the U.S., Europe and China to "big changes" in their national economic policies, including measures designed to raise U.S. savings rates and cut China's reliance on exports.
The newspaper said that the plan, called the "Framework for Sustainable and Balanced Growth", is being readied ahead of this week's meeting in Pittsburgh and would also including Europe making structural changes to boost business investment.
It cited a September 3 letter from senior White House aide Michael Froman who wrote to other G20 officials warning that as U.S. savings rates rise "the world will face lower growth unless other G-20 countries undertake policies that support a shift towards greater domestic, demand-led growth."
The plan would involve reviews of commitment but carries no specific sanctions, the newspaper said.

