
ASIA FX: Dollar in Tight Ranges; Awaits BOJ, New Cabinet
SINGAPORE (MNI) Sep 16 - The dollar stuck to fairly narrow ranges in Asian morning trading Wednesday, with dollar-yen awaiting any news that could send in firmly in one direction or the other.
Dollar-yen was trading late morning here around Y91.07, just below the day highs, as offers at Y91.10/20 capped the upside. The pair has traded a range of Y90.80/91.09 in the morning, not far from its New York close of Y91.10.
Dollar-euro trading was also fairly quiet, trading off its session lows by midday at around $1.4672 from $1.4667 in New York, after again hitting a high for the year of $1.4686 in New York overnight.
Market players continued to target a retest of $1.4720, the December 18 peak, in the short-term, traders said.
Traders said there was some talk that Asian central banks were seen supporting the dollar in the morning.
The market seems to be split on whether dollar-yen is likely to again test the Y90 level and move lower or higher from here.
Some expect that Thursday's Bank of Japan meeting may shed some light on the central bank's thinking on the economy, and hence the future for the yen. It seems unlikely though that the BOJ will provide any new insight on when it will end the current "special" policy measures, although, as mentioned in earlier MNI stories, it may upgrade its economic outlook, which would put it in line with the government's recent upgrade.
Some also are awaiting comments from the new Japanese Cabinet, to be formally introduced later today, to see if the new government will change yen policy in a significant way.
"We think there will be some risk that we will see comments in favor of yen strength from DPJ politicians, including new Finance Minister Fujii, and see a knee-jerk reaction of higher yen - but such yen appreciation should be short-lived," said Tohru Sasaki and Junya Tanase, strategists at JP Morgan Chase in a research note Tuesday.
The strategists do not look for FX policy to be greatly altered under the new DPJ leadership.
"Indeed, the DPJ does not desire a strong yen, but they just believe that currency values should be determined in a competitive, open marketplace based on economic fundamentals," they said.
Under the LDP government, JPMorgan Chase saw less than a 5% chance of intervention.
"Now, we say the possibility of Japan's intervention is less than 3% under DPJ government, which means a little less possibility, but not a significant difference," the strategists said.
"We believe the DPJ-led government will not intervene in the market even if dollar-yen breaks Y87.00," they added.
While unilateral intervention is unlikely, the strategists stressed that this does not rule out multilateral intervention.
"Of course, if the G-7 countries become seriously concerned about a weak dollar for some reason and decide to conduct coordinated intervention, Japan will likely participate in this," they said.

