By Claudia Hirsch

NEW YORK, April 9 (MNI) - Containerized U.S. import volume shrank in February, a typically slow month for ocean transport, but signs of a global trade recovery are mounting, according to U.S. port officials.

The route out of the worst year in container shipping history, 2009, probably isn't going to be a short or simple one, port executives said. In the early months of 2010, year-on-year comparisons will be easy to make, but trade volume growth should moderate going forward. The repair process is expected to be uneven, at least for as long as U.S. consumer sentiment remains tentative. In February, for example, containerized imports dipped vs. January at many U.S. ports, including the four largest.

APL, a leading ocean carrier owned by Singapore-based Neptune Orient Lines, has seen improvement in volumes and capacity utilization in all its principle markets, a path it started on in the second half of 2009, according to Dave Noe, the company's vice president of sales, marketing and customer service.

"We're seeing consistent uptrends," Noe said. "All customers are ramping back up."

So far this year, eastbound trans-Pacific volume is about 40% ahead of the same period of last year, he said. Month-to-month trends also demonstrate healing on the high seas, he said. Even exports have held up nicely, despite the U.S. dollar's recent strengthening. Customers are returning to normality with allocations and volume, he said.

"It's becoming consistent, which is nice," Noe said. In all, APL and the industry should see growth this year of 5% to 7%, he added.

APL, headquartered in Phoenix, is gradually adding back the capacity it pulled during the recession and should be "fully loaded" by July, he said. Rates charged to customers are ticking higher, as well, and further gains may be in store this year.

"For us, things are positive and improving," Noe said. "Most competitors of ours are feeling the same way."

Officials at the nation's two largest container ports -- Los Angeles and Long Beach, Calif. -- aren't counting on an uninterrupted upward trajectory.

"All of us here are wondering about the second half of 2010," said Jim MacLellan, director of trade services for the Port of Los Angeles. Some of his colleagues are worried about the sustainability of consumer spending.

"What percentage of the total (container volume) increase is attributable to inventory replenishment, and what part of it is the actual consumer market improving?"

Across the harbor complex, Port of Long Beach spokesman Art Wong offered a similar sentiment.

"The worst is definitely behind us, but we need to be cautious about how we interpret these numbers and wait a couple of months before we celebrate the end of the recession," Wong said.

"Over the next few months growth is going to be much more modest, and there could even be a dip or two," he said. "The expectation is that over the last half there will be steadier growth."

Both ports posted chunky gains of 30% to 39% for inbound and outbound containerized volumes in February vs. a year ago. But MacLellan said L.A.'s growth for the year should total a more modest 5% to 7%, and Wong said Long Beach may also see only moderate expansion this year between 2.5% and about 10%.

On the month, February imports were relatively weak at the two ports, likely due to the mid-February Chinese lunar New Year, which shuttered factories there for a week or more and dramatically thinned shipments to the U.S. Imports to L.A. dropped nearly 10% vs. January, and goods headed to Long Beach softened by 4.6%, according to port statistics. Exports from L.A. climbed 4.7% in February vs. January, and Long Beach's firmed by nearly 9%.

Wong said export figures for the two ports combined have bounced around in a range for nearly a year, resisting downward pressure from the recession.

"I'm looking for a breakout from that range, and I don't know if we're going to see that till summertime," he said.

Up the coast, the Port of Oakland, Calif., also saw double-digit percentage increases in outbound and inbound boxed goods in February vs. 2009, according to port data.

"After a long period of a drop in import activity we now see two months, December and February, where imports were up over the same month in the prior year," said port spokeswoman Marilyn Sandifur. "We hear that retailers are replenishing their stock. We are pleased to see these positive signs in economic activity and anticipate modest growth in our business this year."

Oakland's February imports dropped about 7% from January levels, and its exports only eked out a 1% gain.

Further north, the Port of Portland, Ore. doubled its total tonnage handled in February compared to 2009. Auto imports, mineral bulk and grain exports and steel slab imports accounted for much of the strength, according to port spokesman Josh Thomas.

"We are seeing some continued signs that suggest economic vitality is gradually returning," Thomas said. Containerized cargo was fairly muted in February vs. 2009, however, due in part to the absence of a shipping service that suspended its Portland call at the end of last April, he said.

At the Port of Seattle, boxed imports soared 84% vs. February 2009, and imports swelled 49%, according to port statistics. The port welcomed three new shipping services last summer, which have added substantially to volumes ever since. On the month, however, Seattle's containerized imports fell about 11% vs. January, while exports sank 16%.

On the Gulf Coast, the Port of Houston Authority saw boxed imports dip 7% vs. 2009 and remain steady vs. January, according to data provided by the port. Exports gained 10% on the year and 5% on the month. Steel tonnage was mostly lower, except for exports, which more than doubled vs. January.

On the East Coast, the Port of New York and New Jersey reported mixed results. February's containerized imports rose 2.5% vs. 2009, but exports dropped 4.2%, according to port statistics. Compared with January, inbound and outbound volumes fell about 6% and 7% respectively at the nation's third-largest port.

The Maryland port of Baltimore saw its container, auto and heavy-equipment export tonnage drop by double-digit percentages vs. a year ago, according to data provided by the port. On the import side, containers strengthened 2%, heavy equipment rose 34%, and autos raced 72% higher. Total import tonnage at the port increased 4% in February vs. 2009, while total export tonnage tumbled 28%.

At the Georgia port of Savannah, the fourth-busiest U.S. container port, February volumes firmed in both directions vs. the prior year and fell vs. January, according to port statistics. March figures show another strong year-on-year comparison for both exports and imports and represent the fourth consecutive double-digit percentage increase.

"The increased cargo passing through our ports may signal that consumers are beginning to purchase again," Georgia Ports Authority Director Curtis Foltz said in a Friday statement. "Our growth in both imports and exports indicates that overall recovery is taking hold."

Foltz described "substantial increases" year-on-year for general merchandise, home improvement, electronics and appliances and "moderate improvements" in furniture.

Across 10 major U.S. ports, containerized import volumes dropped 6% in the seasonally slow month of February compared with January but sailed 20% higher vs. a year ago, according to a tracking survey conducted by the National Retail Federation and consulting firm Hackett Associates. March and April gains vs. a year ago are seen moderating as retailers "carefully" rebuild inventories, the survey said.

The Commerce Department is scheduled to release February international trade data on Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Editor's Note: Reality Check stories survey sentiment among business people and their trade associations. They are intended to complement and anticipate economic data and to provide a view into specific sectors of the U.S. economy.

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